Pound may likely to trade mixed on estimates of optimistic economic growth data

The Sterling Pound traded on a flat note and gained marginally yesterday on the back of upbeat market sentiments in later part of the trade which supported an upside in the currency. 

Further, weakness in the DX acted as a positive factor for the Sterling Pound. The currency touched an intra-day high of 1.6856 and closed at 1.6807 on Monday. 

In today’s trade, the Sterling Pound is likely to trade on a mixed note on the back of estimates of optimistic economic growth data from the country which will support an upside in the currency. Further, weakness in the DX will act as a positive factor. While on the other hand, mixed market sentiments will cap sharp gains or reversal in the Sterling Pound.  
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Rupee may trade on mixed market will exert downside pressure in currency

The Indian Rupee traded on flat note in yesterday’s trading session after hitting a one week high level in earlier sessions. The currency appreciated in the early part of the trade on account of selling of dollars by large infrastructure companies. Further, weakness in the DX coupled with inflow of foreign funds into equities supported an upside in the currency. 

However, in later part of the trade the currency erased it gains and depreciated on the back of huge dollar demand from oil importers and its companies. Additionally, weak domestic markets sentiments and concerns over the QE tapering by US Federal Reserve in its meeting during the week acted as a negative factor. The Indian Rupee touched an intra-day low of 60.735 and closed at 60.65 on Monday. 

For the month of April 2014, FII inflows totaled at Rs.8699.5 crores ($1445.38 million) as on 28th April 2014. Year to date basis, net capital inflows stood at Rs.30895.20 crores ($5095.80 million) as on 28th April 2014. 

From the intra-day perspective, we expect Indian Rupee to trade on a mixed note on the back of dollar demand from importers; concerns of QE tapering by the Federal Reserve along with mixed market sentiments will exert downside pressure in the currency. While on the other hand, inflow of foreign funds into equities along with selling of dollars by exporters and corporate companies will act as a positive factor.  
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Euro expected to trade mixed, favourable economic data will support an upside in currency

The Euro gained by 0.1 percent yesterday on the back of upbeat market sentiments in later part of the trade. Further, weakness in the DX also supported an upside in the currency. 

However, unfavorable economic data from the region restricted positive movement in the currency. The Euro touched an intra-day high of 1.3879 and closed at 1.3849 on Monday. 

German Import Prices declined by 0.6 percent in March as against a previous fall of 0.1 percent in February.

In today’s trade, the Euro is expected to trade on a mixed note on the back of expectations of favourable economic data from the region will support an upside in the currency. Further, weakness in the DX will act as a positive factor for the currency. While on the other hand, mixed market sentiments will act as a negative factor. 

www.punjiniveshonline.com 

Japanese Yen depreciate around 0.3% on Tuesday

The Japanese Yen depreciated around 0.3 percent yesterday on the back of upbeat market sentiments in the later part of the trade that led to fall in demand for the low yielding currency. The Yen touched an intra-day low of 102.62 and closed at 102.50 on Monday. 

We expect Japanese Yen to trade lower today on account of rise in risk appetite in market sentiments which will lead to fall in demand for the low yielding currency. However, less volatility will be observed as Japanese banks closed today on the observance of Showa Day.

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European stocks rise, focus on inflation data; Dax up 0.91%

European stocks were higher on Tuesday, despite disappointing Spanish employment data, as investors eyed a highly anticipated inflation report due on Wednesday, as well as the Federal Reserve's upcoming policy statement.

European stocks rise, focus on inflation data; Dax up 0.91%European stocks open higher, eyes on inflation report
During European morning trade, the DJ Euro Stoxx 50 advanced 0.63%, France’s CAC 40 rose 0.26%, while Germany’s DAX jumped 0.91%.

Official data earlier showed that Spains unemployment rate ticked up to 25.9% in the first quarter, from 25.7% in the fourth quarter of 2013, whose figure was revised from a previously estimated rate of 26.0%.
Anlaysts had expected the unemployment rate to fall to 25.6% in the last quarter.
Separately, an uptick in the euro zone's inflation rate would ease pressure on the European Central Bank to implement additional monetary policy measures.
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U.S. oil futures edge higher ahead of Fed, supply data

U.S. oil futures edged higher on Tuesday, as investors began to focus on the Federal Reserve's upcoming policy meeting.
U.S. oil futures edge higher ahead of Fed, supply dataCrude oil moves higher ahead of Fed meeting, U.S. supply data
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, West Texas Intermediate crude oil for delivery in June held in a range between $100.82 a barrel and $101.25.

Nymex oil last traded at $101.20 a barrel during European morning hours, up 0.35%, or 35 cents. Prices fell to $100.33 a barrel on Monday, the lowest since April 7, before settling at $100.84, up 0.24%, or 24 cents.

Futures were likely to find support at $99.95 a barrel, the low from April 7 and resistance at $102.05 a barrel, the high from April 25.
Traders looked ahead to the Fed’s monetary policy statement due on Wednesday. The central bank is likely to stick to its timetable to trim its monthly bond purchases by another $10 billion.

Oil traders also awaited the release of fresh weekly information on U.S. stockpiles of crude and refined products to gauge the strength of oil demand in the world’s largest oil consumer.

The American Petroleum Institute will release its inventories report later in the day, while Wednesday’s government report could show crude stockpiles rose by 1.9 million barrels in the week ending April 25.

Crude oil inventories rose by 3.5 million barrels last week to hit at an all-time high of 397.7 million.

Meanwhile, investors continued to monitor events in Ukraine, as hostilities between Kiev and Russia remain high. The U.S. and European Union imposed fresh sanctions against Russia on Monday.

17 companies and 7 individuals in all were U.S. targets in this round of sanctions, which come amid mounting tension over eastern Ukraine.

Elsewhere, on the ICE Futures Exchange in London, Brent oil for June delivery eased up 0.41%, or 45 cents, to trade at $108.57 a barrel, while the spread between the Brent and U.S. crude contracts stood at $7.37 a barrel.

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Forex - AUD/USD lower, focus turns to Fed meeting

The Australian dollar was lower against its U.S. counterpart on Tuesday, as a strong U.S. housing report on Monday continued to support demand for the greenback and as investors began to focus on the Federal Reserve's upcoming policy meeting.

Forex - AUD/USD lower, focus turns to Fed meetingAussie edges lower vs. greenback as markets turn to Fed
AUD/USD hit 0.9228 during late Asian trade, the pair's lowest since April 3; the pair subsequently consolidated at 0.9239, falling 0.18%.

The pair was likely to find support at 0.9154, the low of March 26 and resistance at 0.9316, Monday's high.

The greenback remained supported after data on Monday showed that U.S. pending home sales rose for the first time in nine months in March, indicating that the housing market is picking up.

The National Association of Realtors reported that pending home sales jumped 3.4% last month, easily surpassing expectations for a 1% gain. Pending home sales for February were revised to a 0.5% drop from a previously reported decline of 0.8%.

The Aussie was little changed against the New Zealand dollar, with AUD/NZD inching up 0.03% to 1.0844.

Also Tuesday, official data showed that New Zealand's trade surplus widened to NZ$920 million in March, from a surplus of NZ$793 million in February, whose figure was revised down from a previously estimated surplus of NZ$818 million.

Analysts had expected the trade surplus to widen to NZ$937 million last month.

Later in the day, the U.S. was to publish a report compiled by the Conference Board on consumer confidence.
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Gold holds below $1,300 ahead of Fed meeting, Ukraine in focus

Gold prices extended losses from the previous session to remain below the key $1,300-level on Tuesday, as investors remained cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy meeting due to begin later in the day.

Gold holds below $1,300 ahead of Fed meeting, Ukraine in focusGold extends losses as focus turns to Fed meeting
On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold for June delivery held in a range between $1,292.60 a troy ounce and $1,297.00 an ounce.

Gold last traded at $1,293.60 an ounce during European morning hours, down 0.42%, or $5.40. Futures declined 0.14%, or $1.80 an ounce, on Monday to settle at $1,299.00.

Gold prices were likely to find support at $1,268.40 a troy ounce, the low from April 24 and resistance at $1,306.60, the high from April 28.

Traders looked ahead to the Fed’s monetary policy statement due on Wednesday. The central bank is likely to stick to its timetable to trim its monthly bond purchases by another $10 billion.

Markets were also turning their attention to Friday’s U.S. jobs report for April, which was expected to indicate that the recovery in the labor market is continuing.

Meanwhile, investors continued to monitor events in Ukraine, as hostilities between Kiev and Russia remain high. The U.S. and European Union imposed fresh sanctions against Russia on Monday.

17 companies and 7 individuals in all were U.S. targets in this round of sanctions, which come amid mounting tension over eastern Ukraine.

Gold, seen as a safe haven investment, usually benefits from geopolitical turmoil.

Also on the Comex, silver for July delivery declined 0.67%, or 13.2 cents, to trade at $19.48 a troy ounce. Silver ended Monday’s session down 0.5%, or 9.9 cents, to settle at $19.61 an ounce.

Elsewhere in metals trading, copper for July delivery shed 0.49%, or 1.5 cents, to trade at $3.078 a pound.

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Asian shares end weaker, markes in Japan shut for holiday

Asian shares edged out gains on Tuesday with markets in Japan closed and otherwise thin trade ahead of the May 1 holiday.
Asian shares end weaker, markes in Japan shut for holidayAsian shares lower in think holiday trade
China's Shanghai Composite rose 0.16% and the Hang Seng index gained 0.39% in morning sessions.

In China, among actives, Shanghai Port rose 0.7%, Chongqing Gangjiu was up 2.3% and Wuhu Port (600575.SS) gained 0.6% as Premier Li Keqiang urged the invigoration of businesses along the Yangtze River.

Overnight, upbeat U.S. home sales data and a possible mega-merger of pharmaceutical giants Pfizer Inc (NYSE:PFE) and Astrazeneca Plc (AZN.LONDON) sent U.S. stock prices with the Dow 30 up 0.53%, the S&P 500 index gaining 0.32%, while the NASDAQ Composite Composite index fell 0.03%.

Stocks rose after the National Association of Realtors reported that pending home sales jumped 3.4% in March, far surpassing expectations for a 1% gain.

Pending home sales for February were revised to a 0.5% drop from a previously reported decline of 0.8%.

On a year-over-year basis, pending home sales were still down 7.9% in March, though stocks applauded the improvement.

Elsewhere, U.S. drugs giant Pfizer confirmed Monday that it wanted to take over Britain's AstraZeneca in a deal worth almost £60 billion, which sent large-cap U.S. stocks rising.

In other news, the U.S. slapped fresh sanctions on Russia earlier, with this the third round targeting seven individuals and 17 companies

Still, reports that Russian troops were returning to their bases after conducting military exercises on the Ukrainian border sparked relief buying on Wall Street.

After the close of European trade, the DJ Euro Stoxx 50 rose 0.46%, France's CAC 40 rose 0.38%, while Germany's DAX rose 0.48%. Meanwhile, in the U.K. the FTSE 100 rose 0.22%.

On Tuesday, the U.S. is to a report compiled by the Conference Board on consumer confidence.

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Gold prices ease in Asia in thin holiday trade

Gold prices fell in Asia on Tuesday, continuing a decline seen in the U.S. on support for the dollar and in thin trade with Japanese markets shut and the region gearing up for the May 1 holiday.
Gold prices ease in Asia in thin holiday tradeGold prices continue to slip in Asia

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for June delivery traded at $1,295.70 a troy ounce, down 0.25%, after hitting an overnight session low of $1,292.20 and off a high of $1,306.50.

Overnight, gold prices fell after an upbeat report on U.S. home sales blew past expectations and fueled demand for the dollar, which tends to trade inversely with gold, though bottom fishing trimmed earlier losses.

The dollar firmed and gold fell after the National Association of Realtors reported that pending home sales jumped 3.4% in March, far surpassing expectations for a 1% gain.

Pending home sales for February were revised to a 0.5% drop from a previously reported decline of 0.8%.

On a year-over-year basis, pending home sales were still down 7.9% in March, though the data firmed the dollar by reminding investors that the Federal Reserve will continue tapering monthly bond purchases as the year unfolds.

Fed bond purchases, currently set at $55 billion a month, weaken the dollar by suppressing long-term borrowing costs, making gold an attractive hedge.

Talk of Fed tapering tends to strengthen the greenback and soften gold prices.

Silver for July delivery was down 0.04% at US$19.612 a troy ounce, while copper futures for July delivery were down 0.04% at US$3.091 a pound.

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BUY MCX Copper, Nickel, SELL Lead, Aluminium

In our morning report, we had suggested a ratio strategy on gold and silver anticipating that silver may underperform gold while we were little cynical about the trend.

As of now, silver is trading down by 0.50% at $19.59 while gold is down by mere 0.06% at $1300 levels. We wish to continue the same stance for this evening especially when we have the pending home sales number from US which is expected to improve from its previous month’s data .The Dallas Fed manufacturing activity is also rising.

Coming to crude oil, we had suggested a sell view while as of now the June future is trading at $101.30 ,up by 0.70% from its previous close. Possibly the rising European markets supported by lower import price index may have supported the shared currency euro is helping oil prices to recover a tad. Also, the USD index is seen trading down at 79.59 levels.

For this evening we believe initially oil prices may remain positive with the likely positive opening of the US markets while in the later hours the black liquid might lose its gain and turn negative. Hence, we intend to remain on the sell side for oil while we also suggest revising the stop loss to higher levels.

Lastly, from the metals front we had a buy view on nickel and copper and we wish to continue the same for this evening, while we had suggested sell in lead and aluminium and believe to continue the same.
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Sterling Pound likely to trade on negative cues

The Sterling Pound traded on a flat note in the last week on the back of mixed market sentiments which exerted downside pressure on the currency. While on the other hand, favorable economic from the country supported an upside in the currency. Further, weakness in the DX acted as a positive factor for the Sterling Pound. The currency touched a weekly high of 1.6839 and closed at 1.6803 on Friday. 

UK’s Retail Sales grew at slow pace of 0.1 percent in March as against a rise of 1.3 percent in February. British Bankers' Association (BBA) Mortgage Approvals declined by 1300 to 45,900 in March from 47,200 a month ago. 

In today’s trade, the Sterling Pound is likely to trade on a negative note on the back of strength in the DX. Further, weak market sentiments will act as a negative factor for the Sterling Pound.  
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Euro may trade on mixed note, strength in DX will act as negative factor

The Euro gained by 0.1 percent in the last week taking cues from statement from European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi that central bank may start broad based asset purchases if the inflation scenario worsens in future. Further, favorable economic data from the region supported an upside in the currency. 

Additionally, weakness in the DX acted as a positive factor. The Euro touched a weekly high of 1.3854 and closed at 1.3831 on Friday. 

Belgian National Bank of Belgium (NBB) Business Climate slipped by 4.6 points in April from earlier drop of 4.4 points in last month. 

In today’s trade, the Euro is expected to trade on a mixed note on the back of statement from ECB President Mario Draghi that asset purchases is possible in future if inflation scenario worsens will support an upside in the currency. While on the other hand, weak market sentiments coupled with strength in the DX will act as a negative factor.  
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Rupee may trade mixed, equities will support an upside in currency

The Indian Rupee depreciated around 0.5 percent and tested the level of 61-mark on Wednesday. The currency depreciated on the back of dollar demand from oil importers and its companies. 

However, upbeat domestic market sentiments along with revival of foreign inflows into equity markets restricted downside movement in the currency. Also, weakness in the DX prevented sharp fall in the currency. The Indian Rupee touched an intra-day low of 61.19 and closed at 61.09 on Wednesday.

For the month of April 2014, FII inflows totaled at Rs.7601 crores ($1265.65 million) as on 23rd April 2014. Year to date basis, net capital inflows stood at Rs.29796.70 crores ($4916.0 million) as on 23rd April 2014.

From the intra-day perspective, we expect Indian Rupee to trade on a mixed note on the back of weakness in the DX coupled with revival of foreign inflows into equities will support an upside in the currency. While on the other hand, dollar demand from importers coupled with mixed market sentiments will exert downside pressure in the currency.  
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Yen may trade lower on account of rise in risk appetite

The Japanese Yen gained by around 0.2 percent yesterday on the back of weak market sentiments in the early part of the trade that led to rise in demand for the low yielding currency. The Yen touched an intra-day high of 102.07 and closed at 102.30 on Thursday. 

Tokyo Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.7 percent in April as against a rise of 1 percent in April. National Core CPI remained unchanged at 1.3 percent in the current month. 

We expect Japanese Yen to trade lower today on account of rise in risk appetite in market sentiments which will lead to fall in demand for the low yielding currency. However, favorable economic data from the country will cushion sharp downside or reversal in the currency.  
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Crude Oil market under long liquidation, support at 6082

Crudeoil settled down -1.98% at 6131 to test a three-week low, amid concerns over record-high U.S. crude supply levels. While Nymex Crude prices still holding $100 mark as support seen amid of tensions rose in Ukraine and the US and Europe prepared new sanctions against Russia. 

Crude oil prices could get support today ahead of a shortened week through much of the region with Japan due to observe a holiday on Tuesday while most other parts of Asia will be closed on Thursday for Labour Day. 

The U.S. EIA said last week that crude oil inventories rose by 3.52 million barrels last week to hit at an all-time high of 397.7 million. U.S. crude supplies have risen in 13 of the last 14 weeks, underlining concerns over a slowdown in demand from the world’s largest oil consumer. 

Meanwhile, market players continued to monitor U.S. data for further indications on the strength of the economy and the future course of monetary policy. 

Data on Friday showed that consumer confidence rose to a nine-month high in April, adding to signs that the economy is improving. The University of Michigan reported that its consumer sentiment index came in at 84.1 this month, up from 80 in March and the preliminary reading of 82.6. In the week ahead, investors will be looking ahead to Wed’s monetary policy announcement by the Fed amid speculation the central bank is likely to continue to scale back its stimulus program. 

The U.S. will also release the monthly non-farm payrolls report for April later in the week as well as a preliminary estimate on first quarter economic growth. 

Technically market is under long liquidation and getting support at 6082 and below same could see a test of 6033 level, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6223, a move above could see prices testing 6315.

Trading Ideas:
--Crudeoil trading range for the day is 6033-6315.
--Crude oil prices dropped as pressure seen after report showing the amount of crude oil that producers can quickly bring on line had risen.
--However downside was limited as escalating tensions over Ukraine between major oil producer Russia and the West heightened fears of supply disruption.
--A report by EIA showed, however, that the global surplus of oil production capacity had risen 200,000 barrels per day over the last two months.
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Fresh buying seen in Gold, support at 28787

Gold settled up 0.40% at 28905 rallied to a more than one-week high, as demand for safe haven assets strengthened amid intensifying tensions between Russia and Ukraine. Concerns over the conflict between Russian and Ukraine escalated on Friday after U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry warned that Washington was ready to step up sanctions on Russia.

 The West is accusing Russia of leading a separatist revolt in eastern Ukraine after it annexed Crimea last month. Also Gold demand is picking up in India ahead of a key festival and should help curb any further weakness in international prices. 

Nevertheless, observers say the festival itself likely won’t be enough to spark a sharp rally considering the continuing restrictions on gold imports into India and recently lukewarm Chinese demand.

However, Market do look for an eventual relaxation of the onerous Indian import rules, which should then help consumption, although they do not see this occurring until sometime after spring elections. The Akshaya Tritiya festival occurs in India on May 2. Additionally, May is considered one of the two “wedding seasons” in the country. 

Meanwhile, market players continued to monitor U.S. data for further indications on the strength of the economy and the future course of monetary policy. Data on Friday showed that consumer confidence rose to a nine-month high in April, adding to signs that the economy is improving. The University of Michigan reported that its consumer sentiment index came in at 84.1 this month, up from 80 in March and the preliminary reading of 82.6.

Technically market is under fresh buying and getting support at 28787 and below same could see a test of 28668 level, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 28995, a move above could see prices testing 29084.

Trading Ideas:
--Gold trading range for the day is 28668-29084.
--Gold gained due to short supplies amid firm demand ahead of the second-biggest gold buying festival.
--Supplies of gold were scant in the physical market due to spending curbs during elections ahead of Akshaya Tritiya on May 2.
--A report showed that U.S. durable goods orders rose more than expected in March, fuelling optimism over the strength of country's economic recovery.

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MCX Crude Oil may witness lower level buying 6100-6170 range

Crude oil may witness lower level buying. Overall it can move in range of 6100-6170 in MCX. 

Brent rebounded from its biggest loss in almost three weeks as the U.S. said it will impose more sanctions on Russia, the world’s biggest energy exporter, as the Ukraine crisis escalates. 

Representatives of the 28 European Union nations will meet today to widen a list of people subject to asset freezes and travel bans, an official from the bloc said over the weekend. 

The sanctions will target 15 Russians in positions of power, another diplomat said. Both asked not to be identified because of the sensitivity of the matter. Natural gas may trade in range of 282-292 in MCX.

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U.S. futures slip lower as Ukraine crisis weighs; Dow Jones down 0.21%

 U.S. stock futures pointed to a lower open on Friday, as concerns over mounting tensions between Russia and Ukraine weighed on equity markets across the board, while investors eyed the release of U.S. consumer sentiment data later in the day.

U.S. futures slip lower as Ukraine crisis weighs; Dow Jones down 0.21%U.S. futures point to lower open, affected by Ukraine worries
Ahead of the open, the Dow 30 futures pointed to a 0.21% fall, S&P 500 futures signaled a 0.14% slip, while the Nasdaq 100 futures indicated a 0.19% loss.

Market participants were eyeing upcoming U.S. data after a report on Thursday showed that U.S. durable goods orders rose more than expected in March, fuelling optimism over the strength of the country's economic recovery.

Meanwhile, investors remained cautious after Ukrainian forces killed up to five pro-Moscow rebels on Thursday. In response, Russia launched army drills near the border, sparking fears its troops would invade.

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said Washington was drawing closer to imposing more sanctions on Moscow.

The tech sector was slated to be in focus, after Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), Google (NASDAQ:GOOGL), Intel Corporation (NASDAQ:INTC) and Adobe Systems (NASDAQ:ADBE) agreed to pay $324 million to settle an employee lawsuit over claims they conspired to suppress salaries by not recruiting one another’s workers.

Shares in Apple were down 0.57% in pre-market trade and Google slipped 0.18%, while Intel eased 0.07%.

In earnings news, Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) said late Thursday that et income in the fiscal third quarter was $5.66 billion, or 68 cents a share, beating the average analyst estimate of 63 cents. Sales were $20.4 billion, matching projections.

The news sent the company's stock up 2.06% in early trading.
Amazon.com (NASDAQ:AMZN) also moved lower on the other hand, tumbling 1.23% pre-market, after the internet retailer posted earnings of 23 cents a share, matching market expectations, while revenue was higher at $19.74 billion.

Among energy stocks, Chevron (NYSE:CVX) was expected to be active after announcing plans to run higher-sulfur Alaskan and Middle Eastern crudes when it completes work at Northern California’s largest refinery in 2016.

Other stocks likely to be in focus included Ford (NYSE:F), Colgate-Palmolive (NYSE:CL), Moodys (NYSE:MCO) and State Street (NYSE:STT), scheduled to report quarterly results later in the day.
Across the Atlantic, European stock markets were lower. The DJ Euro Stoxx 50 dropped 0.58%, France’s CAC 40 slid 0.36%, Germany's DAX tumbled 0.97%, while Britain's FTSE 100 shed 0.31%.

During the Asian trading session, Hong Kong's Hang Seng plummeted 1.50%, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 added 0.17%.
Later in the day, the U.S. was to release revised data on consumer sentiment.

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Gold futures up on firm global cues

Gold futures rose by 0.50 per cent to Rs 28,443 per 10 gm today as speculators enlarged positions on the back of firming global trends.

At the Multi Commodity Exchange, gold for delivery in far-month August rose by Rs 142, or 0.50 per cent, to Rs 28,443 per 10 grams, with a business turnover of 90 lots.

In a similar fashion, the metal for delivery in June moved up by Rs 140, or 0.49 per cent, to Rs 28,930 per 10 grams, with a trade volume of 1,763 lots.

Market analysts said the rise in gold futures was mainly in line with a firming trend in overseas markets as the conflict between Russia and Ukraine fuelled demand and buying increased in China, the world’s largest consumer.

Meanwhile, gold rose by 0.79 per cent to USD 1,293.90 an ounce in New York yesterday.

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