Sterling Pound likely to trade on negative cues

The Sterling Pound traded on a flat note in the last week on the back of mixed market sentiments which exerted downside pressure on the currency. While on the other hand, favorable economic from the country supported an upside in the currency. Further, weakness in the DX acted as a positive factor for the Sterling Pound. The currency touched a weekly high of 1.6839 and closed at 1.6803 on Friday. 

UK’s Retail Sales grew at slow pace of 0.1 percent in March as against a rise of 1.3 percent in February. British Bankers' Association (BBA) Mortgage Approvals declined by 1300 to 45,900 in March from 47,200 a month ago. 

In today’s trade, the Sterling Pound is likely to trade on a negative note on the back of strength in the DX. Further, weak market sentiments will act as a negative factor for the Sterling Pound.  
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Euro may trade on mixed note, strength in DX will act as negative factor

The Euro gained by 0.1 percent in the last week taking cues from statement from European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi that central bank may start broad based asset purchases if the inflation scenario worsens in future. Further, favorable economic data from the region supported an upside in the currency. 

Additionally, weakness in the DX acted as a positive factor. The Euro touched a weekly high of 1.3854 and closed at 1.3831 on Friday. 

Belgian National Bank of Belgium (NBB) Business Climate slipped by 4.6 points in April from earlier drop of 4.4 points in last month. 

In today’s trade, the Euro is expected to trade on a mixed note on the back of statement from ECB President Mario Draghi that asset purchases is possible in future if inflation scenario worsens will support an upside in the currency. While on the other hand, weak market sentiments coupled with strength in the DX will act as a negative factor.  
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Rupee may trade mixed, equities will support an upside in currency

The Indian Rupee depreciated around 0.5 percent and tested the level of 61-mark on Wednesday. The currency depreciated on the back of dollar demand from oil importers and its companies. 

However, upbeat domestic market sentiments along with revival of foreign inflows into equity markets restricted downside movement in the currency. Also, weakness in the DX prevented sharp fall in the currency. The Indian Rupee touched an intra-day low of 61.19 and closed at 61.09 on Wednesday.

For the month of April 2014, FII inflows totaled at Rs.7601 crores ($1265.65 million) as on 23rd April 2014. Year to date basis, net capital inflows stood at Rs.29796.70 crores ($4916.0 million) as on 23rd April 2014.

From the intra-day perspective, we expect Indian Rupee to trade on a mixed note on the back of weakness in the DX coupled with revival of foreign inflows into equities will support an upside in the currency. While on the other hand, dollar demand from importers coupled with mixed market sentiments will exert downside pressure in the currency.  
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Yen may trade lower on account of rise in risk appetite

The Japanese Yen gained by around 0.2 percent yesterday on the back of weak market sentiments in the early part of the trade that led to rise in demand for the low yielding currency. The Yen touched an intra-day high of 102.07 and closed at 102.30 on Thursday. 

Tokyo Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.7 percent in April as against a rise of 1 percent in April. National Core CPI remained unchanged at 1.3 percent in the current month. 

We expect Japanese Yen to trade lower today on account of rise in risk appetite in market sentiments which will lead to fall in demand for the low yielding currency. However, favorable economic data from the country will cushion sharp downside or reversal in the currency.  
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GOLD TIPS 28/04/2014

CALL GOLD BUY ABV 28960 TGT 29010 TGT 29060 TGT 29150 SL 28890 PUNJINIVESH CONTACT 9619662404

CALL GOLD BUY ABV 28960 TGT 29010 TGT 29060 TGT 29150 SL 28890 PUNJINIVESH CONTACT 9619662404

CALL GOLD BUY ABV 28960 TGT 29010 TGT 29060 TGT 29150 SL 28890 PUNJINIVESH CONTACT 9619662404

CALL GOLD BUY ABV 28960 TGT 29010 TGT 29060 TGT 29150 SL 28890 PUNJINIVESH CONTACT 9619662404

CALL GOLD BUY ABV 28960 TGT 29010 TGT 29060 TGT 29150 SL 28890 PUNJINIVESH CONTACT 9619662404

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Crude Oil market under long liquidation, support at 6082

Crudeoil settled down -1.98% at 6131 to test a three-week low, amid concerns over record-high U.S. crude supply levels. While Nymex Crude prices still holding $100 mark as support seen amid of tensions rose in Ukraine and the US and Europe prepared new sanctions against Russia. 

Crude oil prices could get support today ahead of a shortened week through much of the region with Japan due to observe a holiday on Tuesday while most other parts of Asia will be closed on Thursday for Labour Day. 

The U.S. EIA said last week that crude oil inventories rose by 3.52 million barrels last week to hit at an all-time high of 397.7 million. U.S. crude supplies have risen in 13 of the last 14 weeks, underlining concerns over a slowdown in demand from the world’s largest oil consumer. 

Meanwhile, market players continued to monitor U.S. data for further indications on the strength of the economy and the future course of monetary policy. 

Data on Friday showed that consumer confidence rose to a nine-month high in April, adding to signs that the economy is improving. The University of Michigan reported that its consumer sentiment index came in at 84.1 this month, up from 80 in March and the preliminary reading of 82.6. In the week ahead, investors will be looking ahead to Wed’s monetary policy announcement by the Fed amid speculation the central bank is likely to continue to scale back its stimulus program. 

The U.S. will also release the monthly non-farm payrolls report for April later in the week as well as a preliminary estimate on first quarter economic growth. 

Technically market is under long liquidation and getting support at 6082 and below same could see a test of 6033 level, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6223, a move above could see prices testing 6315.

Trading Ideas:
--Crudeoil trading range for the day is 6033-6315.
--Crude oil prices dropped as pressure seen after report showing the amount of crude oil that producers can quickly bring on line had risen.
--However downside was limited as escalating tensions over Ukraine between major oil producer Russia and the West heightened fears of supply disruption.
--A report by EIA showed, however, that the global surplus of oil production capacity had risen 200,000 barrels per day over the last two months.
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Fresh buying seen in Gold, support at 28787

Gold settled up 0.40% at 28905 rallied to a more than one-week high, as demand for safe haven assets strengthened amid intensifying tensions between Russia and Ukraine. Concerns over the conflict between Russian and Ukraine escalated on Friday after U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry warned that Washington was ready to step up sanctions on Russia.

 The West is accusing Russia of leading a separatist revolt in eastern Ukraine after it annexed Crimea last month. Also Gold demand is picking up in India ahead of a key festival and should help curb any further weakness in international prices. 

Nevertheless, observers say the festival itself likely won’t be enough to spark a sharp rally considering the continuing restrictions on gold imports into India and recently lukewarm Chinese demand.

However, Market do look for an eventual relaxation of the onerous Indian import rules, which should then help consumption, although they do not see this occurring until sometime after spring elections. The Akshaya Tritiya festival occurs in India on May 2. Additionally, May is considered one of the two “wedding seasons” in the country. 

Meanwhile, market players continued to monitor U.S. data for further indications on the strength of the economy and the future course of monetary policy. Data on Friday showed that consumer confidence rose to a nine-month high in April, adding to signs that the economy is improving. The University of Michigan reported that its consumer sentiment index came in at 84.1 this month, up from 80 in March and the preliminary reading of 82.6.

Technically market is under fresh buying and getting support at 28787 and below same could see a test of 28668 level, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 28995, a move above could see prices testing 29084.

Trading Ideas:
--Gold trading range for the day is 28668-29084.
--Gold gained due to short supplies amid firm demand ahead of the second-biggest gold buying festival.
--Supplies of gold were scant in the physical market due to spending curbs during elections ahead of Akshaya Tritiya on May 2.
--A report showed that U.S. durable goods orders rose more than expected in March, fuelling optimism over the strength of country's economic recovery.

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www.punjiniveshonline.com Contact 9619662404