Friday, 16 May 2014

Gold, Silver, Crude Oil may trade lower on stronger dollar

European markets are trading on a negative note on the back of unfavorable economic data from the region. Asian markets ended on a mixed note and the US stock futures are trading in the red.

French Prelim Non-Farm Payrolls fell by 0.1 percent in March as against a gain of 0.1 percent in February. Italian Trade Balance jumped to 3.87 billion Euros in March from 2.63 billion Euros in February. Euro Zone’s Trade Balance rose marginally to 15.2 billion Euros in March from 15 billion Euros in February.

Indian Rupee appreciated by 0.9 percent and touched a high of 58.61 as the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) swept the 16th Lok Sabha Election, on its way to securing more than 300 seats out of a possible 543. However, further gains were capped as the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) intervened in the currency market to stop the local currency from strengthening.

Spot gold price is trading on a negative note on the back of strength in the DX. However, sharp downside was cushioned as the Russia Ukraine tensions continue to mount, thereby leading to rising safe haven demand. Also, gain of 0.2 percent in SPDR holdings to 782.25 tons, rebounding from the lowest since January 2009 acted as a positive factor. On the MCX, gold prices plunged by 0.8 percent owing to Rupee appreciation.

Silver prices declined by 0.3 percent owing to strength in the DX and mixed global market sentiments. Also, declining trend in gold prices acted as a negative factor. However, positive movement in base metals restricted sharp fall. On the MCX, silver prices are trading lower by 1 percent on account of Rupee appreciation and touched a low of Rs.41064/kg till 4:00pm IST.

Base metals on the LME traded on a positive note today on the back of continuous decline in inventories which slumped by another 2.4 percent to 186,525 tonnes. However, rise in risk aversion in the markets along with strength in the DX exerted downside pressure on prices. In the Indian markets, base metals are trading lower taking cues from Rupee appreciation.

Nymex crude oil prices rose by 0.1 percent owing to speculation that escalating tension in Ukraine may disrupt supplies from Russia, the world’s biggest energy exporter. However, strength in the DX restricted sharp upside in prices. MCX crude oil prices plunged by 0.7 percent and touched a low of Rs.5974/bbl till 4:00pm IST.

In the evening session, we expect bullion and crude oil prices to trade lower on the back of strength in the DX that will act as a negative factor for prices.

Base metals prices are likely to trade sideways on the back of rise in risk aversion in the markets that will exert downside pressure on prices.

While on the other hand, estimates of positive economic data from the US in the evening session will cushion sharp downside or even reversal in prices.
www.punjiniveshonline.com


No comments:

Post a Comment