Monday, 5 May 2014

Zinc may trade 121.1-124.7 range, gains at 123.50

Zinc settled up 1.02% at 123.50 fluctuated in a wide range during China's May Day holiday, rising initially before falling. LME zinc prices opened at USD 2,016.8/mt last Friday. 

PMIs from eurozone countries in April were mostly stable, and US April non-farm employment rate rose by the most since January 2012, while unemployment rate dropped sharply, supporting LME zinc prices to rise and claw back early day losses, touching the 5-day moving average, and closing at USD 2,042.3/mt, up USD 21.3/mt, or 1.05%. 

Also US nonfarm payrolls released last Friday increased by 288,000 during April, the biggest monthly rise since January 2012 and well above expectations and March’s figures. Meanwhile, the country’s jobless rate also dropped below the US Federal Reserve’s 6.5% threshold to 6.3%, a fresh low last seen in September 2008. In addition, the nonfarm payrolls for March and February also were revised upward sharply from 192,000 and 197,000, to 203,000 and 222,000, respectively. 

These encouraging economic data boosted market sentiment, sending LME base metals up slightly. US labor participation rate for April, however, was reported at only 62.8%, a trough in 30 years. It was also worth noting that the US Fed announced at May’s interest rate meeting to keep federal funds rate unchanged between 0-0.25% and scale back its monthly bond purchases to USD 45 billion. 

In the week ahead, investors will be looking ahead to Monday’s report on U.S. service sector activity and Wednesday’s testimony by Fed Chair Janet Yellen on monetary policy and the economy. Now Zinc is getting support at 122.3 and below same could see a test of 121.1 level, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 124.1, a move above could see prices testing 124.7.

Trading Ideas:
--Zinc trading range for the day is 121.1-124.7.
--Zinc prices gained as encouraging economic data from US zone boosted market sentiment.
--US jobless rate dropped below the US Federal Reserve’s 6.5% threshold to 6.3%, a fresh low last seen in September 2008.
--China’s official manufacturing PMI came in at 50.4 in April, up 0.1 percentage point for two straight months but a shade lower than estimates.
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