Thursday, 15 May 2014

Rupee may trade on positive cues

The Indian Rupee hit a ten month high and appreciated around 1 percent on Tuesday. The currency appreciated on account of exit polls expectations that Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its allies will win elections with a majority which led to upside in the domestic market sentiments. Further, selling of dollars by corporate companies and exporters and weakness in the DX supported an upside in the currency.

However, currency retreated from 10-month high level due to estimates of dollar buying by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and dollar demand from oil importers. The Indian Rupee touched an intra-day high of 59.445 and closed at 59.45 on Tuesday. 

For the month of April 2014, FII inflows totaled at Rs.4601.70 crores ($766.77 million) as on 13th May 2014. Year to date basis, net capital inflows stood at Rs.36399.70 crores ($6011.70 million) as on 13th May 2014. 

From the intra-day perspective, we expect Indian Rupee to trade on a positive note on the back of exit polls expectations that BJP and its allies will win elections with a majority coupled with selling of dollars by exporters and corporate companies. 

However, sharp upside in the currency will be capped or reversal can be seen due to dollar demand from oil importers and central bank, weak market sentiments and strength in the DX along with forecast for rise in wholesale inflation data of the country.  
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