Friday, 16 May 2014

Nickel may witness down at 1107.9, trading range 1076-1157.4

Nickel settled down -6.01% at 1107.9 as pressure seen on prices on continued profit booking amid signs of sufficient supply. From the negative side, nickel inventories at the LME warehouses stood 55% higher compared to the same period last year.

The negative Q1 GDP report from the euro zone reinforced market expectations that the European Central Bank could further loose its monetary policy. Data from the US turned out positive, with CPI rising 2.0% YoY in April, its biggest gain since July 2013.

The country’s initial jobless claims were 297,000 for the week ending May 10, a new low since May 2007. The NY Empire State Manufacturing Index was reported at 19.01 in May, hitting a 4-year high.

However, NAHB home price index dropped to its lowest in a year. In Europe, the euro zone GDP grew 0.2% on a quarterly basis during Q1, on par with Q4 last year but missing forecasts. Final CPI for the single currency bloc remained low at 0.7% in April.

The European Central Bank reiterated in its monthly report that additional measures might be adopted should inflation remain low for the long run, and cut its forecast for 2014 inflation from 1.1% to 0.9%.

A report due probably will show China’s gross domestic product expanded 1.5 percent in the first quarter, down from 1.8 percent in the fourth quarter. Still Vale’s 40ktpa nickel plant in New Caledonia has remained suspended after an accidental spill closed the plant on 7 May.

Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -19.81% to settled at 7807, now Nickel is getting support at 1092 and below same could see a test of 1076 level, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1132.7, a move above could see prices testing 1157.4.

Trading Ideas:
--Nickel trading range for the day is 1076-1157.4.
--Nickel dropped as pressure seen on prices on continued profit booking amid signs of sufficient supply.
--The gain in nickel inventories eased concern that Indonesia’s ban would drain supplies.
--Data from the US turned out positive, with CPI rise hitting 2.0% in April, its biggest gain since July 2013.
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